Evidence-based political commentary examining elections, policy, and governance. From San Francisco housing to national politics and international relations, I analyze political developments through a data-focused lens. Bringing together quantitative analysis and insider perspectives with both empathy and edge.
Politics
A perfectly timed Nvidia put trade preceded Trump’s export controls by hours—and paid off by over 600%. In a month already shadowed by suspicious options activity, this one raises new questions.
Finance
The 30-year Treasury yield approached 5% on April 11, 2025. Since 2008, long-term rates have stayed below this line. Crossing it doesn't guarantee collapse, but takes us off the map. We don't know what breaks when borrowing costs stay high or which assumptions stop working.
Finance
On April 11, 2025, traders placed large, targeted call option bets on Apple. That evening, the Trump administration quietly exempted smartphones from tariffs, news not publicized until April 12. These trades weren't speculation - they were placed before the memo was released.
Finance
At 12:58 pm EST on April 9, 2025, someone placed perfectly-timed SPY options bets just 32 minutes before Trump's surprise tariff announcement. These $0.85 contracts soared to $31 each by closing bell. A $100,000 bet became $3.6 million in hours. The odds? A 1-in-4,484 chance of even minimal profit.
Finance
On April 9, 2025, someone risked $2.5 million on SPY call options—and walked away with $70+ million in under an hour. The trade was placed at 1:01 pm. At 1:30 pm, Trump announced tariff pauses. The market exploded upward. These options that cost 85 cents were suddenly worth more than $25.