The 30-year Treasury yield approached 5% on April 11, 2025. Since 2008, long-term rates have stayed below this line. Crossing it doesn't guarantee collapse, but takes us off the map. We don't know what breaks when borrowing costs stay high or which assumptions stop working.
On April 11, 2025, traders placed large, targeted call option bets on Apple. That evening, the Trump administration quietly exempted smartphones from tariffs, news not publicized until April 12. These trades weren't speculation - they were placed before the memo was released.
At 12:58 pm EST on April 9, 2025, someone placed perfectly-timed SPY options bets just 32 minutes before Trump's surprise tariff announcement. These $0.85 contracts soared to $31 each by closing bell. A $100,000 bet became $3.6 million in hours. The odds? A 1-in-4,484 chance of even minimal profit.
Zero-day options represent speculation in its purest form. Traders pay a small premium for a contract destined to expire worthless within hours unless the market dramatically swings your way. On April 9th, from 12:58 pm to 1:30 pm, millions of these high-risk bets flooded the market across multiple
On April 9, 2025, someone risked $2.5 million on SPY call options—and walked away with $70+ million in under an hour. The trade was placed at 1:01 pm. At 1:30 pm, Trump announced tariff pauses. The market exploded upward. These options that cost 85 cents were suddenly worth more than $25.
Hello! It's Data and Politics. I'm starting this newsletter to share thoughts that need more room than 280 characters. I've been in tech for over 20 years, with experience in AI/ML research. I'll probably be wrong about plenty—but I'll be entertainingly wrong with all the snark they deserve!